Objective To establish a prognostic model and explore its clinical application based on disease progression within 24 months (POD24) in patients with multiple myeloma (MM).

Methods A total of 289 patients newly diagnosed with MM at Wuxi People's Hospital from January 2007 to June 2022 were selected as the training group for retrospective analysis. A prognostic model based on POD24 was constructed using Cox univariate and multivariate analyses of overall survival (OS). A total of 184 patients from The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from August 2015 to December 2019 were included in the validation group to verify the predictive efficacy of the model.

Results Age, β2-microglobulin, Calcium, and POD24 were independent prognostic factors for MM. Patients in the high-risk group (≥2 points) had shorter OS (25.0 months vs. 60.0 months) and progression-free survival (PFS)(14.0 months vs. 56.0 months) than those in the low-risk group (<2 points). In addition, OS and PFS differed between the high- and low-risk groups in the entire validation group, as well as in each patient subgroup (P<0.05).

Conclusions The prognostic model based on POD24, age, β2 microglobulin, and Calcium holds prognostic value for patients newly diagnosed with MM in clinical practice.