20 830例中晚期食管鳞癌超长期生存影响因素分析

Analysis of prognostic factors for ultra-long‑term survival in 20 830 patients with advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

  • 摘要:
    目的 探讨中晚期(Ⅱ+Ⅲ+Ⅳ期)食管鳞癌超长期生存(≥10年)患者的临床病理特征、免疫及生存影响因素。
    方法 采用X-tile软件确定中性粒细胞/淋巴细胞(NLR)阈值,SPSS 27.0软件进行统计学分析。两组之间的比较采用χ2检验,不同临床特征患者的生存曲线用Kaplan-Meier(Log-rank)法绘制,用Cox回归分析模型输入法筛选出超长期(≥10年)患者的预后独立危险因素并用GraphPad Prism 10.1.2进行绘图。
    结果 在女性、年龄<60岁、高发区、农村居民、吸烟史阴性、饮酒史阴性、家族史阳性、BMI<18.5、胸中段、淋巴结转移阴性、TNM分期Ⅱ期中的超长期患者占比高于短期(P<0.001),NLR低组中的超长期患者占比较高(P=0.008)。在超长期患者中,女性、年龄<60岁、高发区、城镇居民、吸烟史阴性、家族史阳性、胸中段、淋巴结转移阴性组生存较好;TNM分期中Ⅱ期患者的生存最好,其次是Ⅲ期,Ⅳ期患者生存最差。
    结论 男性、年龄≥60岁、农村居民、肿瘤长径≥4 cm、淋巴结转移阳性、TNM分期中Ⅲ期、Ⅳ期均是超长期患者生存的独立危险因素。

     

    Abstract: Objective: We explored clinicopathological characteristics, immune-, and survival-influencing factors in patients who experienced ultra-long-term survival (≥10 years) of advanced (stage Ⅱ+Ⅲ+Ⅳ) esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Methods: The optimal neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) cutoff value was determined using the X-tile software, and statistical analyses were performed with SPSS 27.0. Comparisons between groups were performed using the Pearson's chi-square test. Survival curves of patients with different clinical characteristics were plotted using the Kaplan-Meier method (Log-rank test). The enter method in the Cox regression analysis model was employed to identify independent prognostic risk factors for ultra-long-term survivor patients, and a figure was subsequently generated using GraphPad Prism 10.1.2. Results: Patient characteristics that contributed to significantly (P<0.001) elevated rate of ultra-long-term survival included female sex, aged <60 years, residence in a high-incidence area, rural residence, non-smoker, non-drinker, positive family history, BMI <18.5, mid-thoracic tumor, negative for lymph node metastasis, and TNM stage Ⅱ. A significantly elevated proportion of ultra-long-term survivors was also observed in the low NLR group (P=0.008). Among the ultra-long-term survivor patients, those who were female, aged <60 years, from high-incidence areas, urban residents, non-smokers, with a positive family history, mid-thoracic tumors and negative lymph node metastasis exhibited the best survival outcomes. By TNM stage, stage Ⅱ patients survived the longest, followed by stage Ⅲ, with stage Ⅳ survival being the shortest. Conclusions: Male, age ≥60 years, rural residence, primary tumor longest diameter ≥4 cm, lymph-node positive, TNM stage Ⅲ or Ⅳ were all independent risk factors against ultra-long-term patient survival.

     

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