1990年至2021年中国女性肺癌疾病负担及未来预测

Disease burden of lung cancer in Chinese women from 1990 to 2021 and future projections

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析1990年至2021年中国女性肺癌负担的变化趋势。
    方法 年度百分比变化、年龄-时期-队列(age-period-cohort,APC)模型用以评估年龄、时期和队列效应以及负担趋势,贝叶斯APC模型被用于预测未来负担趋势。
    结果 1990年至2021年中国女性肺癌的年龄标准化发病率(age-standardized incidence rate,ASIR)、年龄标准化患病率(age-standardized prevalence rate,ASPR)、年龄标准化死亡率(age-standard-ized death rate,ASDR)均呈上升趋势,而年龄标准化伤残调整寿命年呈稳定趋势。中国女性肺癌发病高峰年龄组为70~74岁。2021年中国女性肺癌死亡的主要风险因素为吸烟、室外颗粒物污染、二手烟。中国女性肺癌患病率随年龄增长先升后降。未来,中国女性肺癌的负担呈上升趋势。
    结论 1990年至2021年中国女性肺癌负担呈上升趋势。应重点防控吸烟、室外颗粒物污染等减轻疾病负担。

     

    Abstract: Objective: To analyze disease burden trends of lung cancer in Chinese women from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and the age-period-cohort (APC) model were used to assess the effects of age, period, and cohort, as well as the trend in burden. The Bayesian APC model was employed to predict the future burden trend. Results: From 1990 to 2021, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standard-ized death rate (ASDR) increased, while age-standardized disability-adjusted life years remained stable. Peak incidence occurred in females aged 70–74 years. In 2021, the primary risk factors included smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and second-hand smoke. Prevalence rates fluctuated with age. Future projections indicate rising lung cancer burden among Chinese females. Conclusions: Lung cancer burden among Chinese women increased from 1990 to 2021. Prioritizing prevention and control of smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and other key risk factors is essential to reduce disease burden.

     

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