放射暴露对早发女性乳腺癌幸存者罹患第二原发癌的风险研究

Research on the risk of secondary primary malignancies in early-onset female breastcancer survivors attributed to radiation exposure

  • 摘要:
    目的 对暴露于放射线的早发乳腺癌患者(诊断年龄<50岁)罹患第二原发癌(second primary malignancies,SPMs)的风险进行综合量化评价。
    方法 在监测、流行病学和最终结果数据库中纳入2000至2018年的早发乳腺癌患者。估计SPMs的累积发生率,通过泊松回归评估放射线暴露(radiation exposure,RE)组和放射线未暴露(non-radiation exposure,NRE)组SPMs的相关风险。竞争风险模型识别SPMs发病的危险因素,构建列线图模型并进行效果评价和风险分层。
    结果 RE组和NRE组分别为88 483例和68 085例,10年SPMs累积发病率分别为3.38%和2.62%。年龄在20~30岁、30~40岁和40~50岁患者因放射线导致SPMs的相对风险分别为1.10、1.31和1.32。亚组分析中,RE组与NRE组相比,SPMs发病风险更高。早发乳腺癌幸存者发生SPMs的危险因素中,暴露放射线(HR=1.04,95%CI:1.01~1.12)与SPMs的风险增加相关。预测模型的时间依赖ROC曲线显示,6年、8年和10年的 AUC 值分别为 0.631、0.621和0.607。风险分层将早发乳腺癌患者分为低、中和高风险组,3组累积发病率分别为1.53%、3.75%和7.21%(P<0.05)。
    结论 早发乳腺癌幸存者仍存在较高的因暴露放射线导致的SPMs的发病风险,应加大此类人群的监测力度,早期识别高风险患者。

     

    Abstract: Objective: This study presents a comprehensive quantitative evaluation of the risk of second primary malignancies (SPMs) development in patients with early-onset breast cancer exposed to radiation (age <50 years). Methods: Early-onset breast cancer patients were included from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results databases, 2000–2018. We estimated the cumulative incidence of SPMs and evaluated the associated risks of SPMs in the radiation exposure (RE) and non-radiation exposure (NRE) groups using a Poisson regression. The competitive risk model identifiedrisk factors for SPMs, constructed a nomogram, and evaluated effects and stratified risk. Results: A total of 88, 483 and 68, 085 patients were in the RE group and the NRE group, with the cumulative incidence rates of SPMs over 10 years being 3.38% and 2.62%, respectively. The relative risks of SPMs caused by radiation for patients aged 20–30, 30–40, and 40–50 was 1.10, 1.31, and 1.32, respectively. In subgroup analysis, the RE group was at a higher risk of developing SPMs than the NRE group. Among the risk factors for SPMs, exposure to radiation (HR=1.04, 95%CI: 1.01–1.12) was associated with an increased risk of SPMs. The time-dependent ROC curve of the prediction model showed that the AUC at 6, 8, and 10 years were 0.631, 0.621, and 0.607, respectively. Risk stratification divided the patients with early onset breast cancer into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. The cumulative incidence rates in the three groups were 1.53%, 3.75%, and 7.21%, respectively (P<0.05). Conclusions: Survivors of early-onset breast cancer have a relatively high risk of SPMs development due to exposure to radiation. Monitoring efforts for these patients should be strengthened to identify high-risk patients at early stages.

     

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